Tsunami and Brazil
This week we learned about Tsunami's and read advice from FEMA for before, during and after a Tsunami. We learned about Volcanic, earthquake and landslides in the ocean that can cause a Tsunami. In Brazil there are miles of coast lines and tsunami are a fact of life.
However, when I looked at Brazil I found another form of tsunami and that is Metrological Tsunami. What is a Meteorological tsunami or meteotsunami you ask? Well at UNESCO we learn; "... : Meteorological tsunami (meteotsunami) "Tsunami-like phenomena generated by meteorological or atmospheric disturbances. These waves can be produced by atmospheric gravity waves, pressure jumps, frontal passages, squalls, gales, typhoons, hurricanes and other atmospheric sources." "Meteotsunamis have the same temporal and spatial scales as tsunami waves and can similarly devastate coastal areas, especially in bays and inlets with strong amplification and well-defined resonant property." (Halas)
John Halas on CARSCOPES writes:
"Sunbathers, swimmers and casual visitors at the world's longest beach, the Praia do Cassino (literally Casino Beach) in Rio Grande, Brazil, were captured by surprise this past Sunday when a bizarre natural phenomenon known as a Meteorological Tsunami, Meteotsunami or simply, weather-induced tsunami, hit the area. It caused the sea to swell and spill out a wave that reached all the way up to the parking spots (…or at least where people had parked their rides, possibly too close to the beach), and while humans escaped unscathed, their belongings, including dozens of vehicles, were damaged, as the body of water tossed the cars around on the sand. According to locals, this isn't the first time that such a tsunami has been observed in the area."
The following picture is one I found that must concern all of us;
Tsunami Watch
This is a Disaster Forecast, not a Hoax
The British National Press published articles during the
latter part of 2004 stating that an eminent American vulcanologist, who has
been an advisor to the United Nations and was in charge of
tsunami research in Hawaii, has forecast
that “during the next few decades” there is a probability
of a tidal wave 120 feet high, hitting the American Eastern seaboard.
George Pararas-Carayannis, a
scientist of Greek decent, has stated that this would be caused by a series of
three volcanoes on La Palma, in the Canary Islands, exploding, propelling a
piece of faulted material “the size of the Isle of Man”,
which is in the Irish Sea, into the North Atlantic Ocean.
This fault is a fact.
The trouble is compounded when even scientists specialising in the subject cannot agree.
I have spoken to many people about these newspaper articles and have
consequently found out and calculated the following information, which I feel I
MUST pass on, in good faith, even though the news is extremely gloomy to
millions of people. There is no way in which any one person can be blamed for
lack of publicity or lack of action, only Governments. There are not enough
people who know of this danger to the planet. We are all unqualified in the
subject of volcanoes and tsunamis, and must put our futures in the hands of
experts, which include British scientists, to keep information like this
available.
“Dr. Simon Day and Bill McGuire of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at
University College, London agree and say that the fault is now inherently
unstable, and that they expect it to crash into the ocean.”
(Src. Western Morning News)
Publicised Information
The wave created would initially be in excess of 1000
feet (300 meters) high, and would obliterate all life along many thousands of miles of
shoreline on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, probably sinking many ships near
both coastlines of the Atlantic Ocean. This wave is expected to be 120 feet (37 meters)
high when it hits the Boston/New York area. It is forecast to travel as far
as 12 miles (19 Kilometers) inland from the American East Coast and the result will be
thousands of times worse that the New Orleans flooding, killing hundreds of
thousands of people and leaving damage which will ruin the American economy for
decades.
A BBC Television programme called "10 Things you didn't know about Tsunamis"
has been broadcast several times on BBC4 and recently (13th March 2008)
on BBC 2, which is probably a more popular channel, and consequently the programme
will have more impetus on the public. However, and rather puzzling, the only mention,
again, is of the consequences to the New York/ Boston area. Possibly a financial
consideration, I think. However this wave, or series of waves will be 5 hours old when it reaches there. I have
analysed, shown below, what would happen in that five hours.
The Wave...
...itself will travel through water at up to 600 miles (1000 kilometers) per hour and will
be unseen by sea going vessels, as the wave travels within the upper layers of
the water. However, as it approaches the shoreline the wave erupts above the
water level to the same height as the wave depth, in this case over 100 feet.
There may also be a series of waves of various sizes. 100/120 feet (37 meters) refers to
the waves in the quoted New York/ Boston area. The effect nearer to the event
will be MUCH, MUCH worse.
Further Specific Results
This wave will spread in a circle, just as a
stone thrown into a pond forms concentric ripples. However THIS TSUNAMI WILL
MAKE THE INDONESIAN TSUNAMI LOOK JUST LIKE THAT — A RIPPLE.
This tsunami will, within a few minutes, hit the Northwest African coastline
with waves which, being closer to the event, will be possibly in excess of 800 feet
high (240 metres) destroying all coastal cities and all life within many
miles of the coast. There will be little possibility of any useful warning
period. At the same time the Canary Islands and Madeira will suffer the same
fate.
Soon after this, and within 2 hours of the event a wave of over 600 feet (180m)
will sweep North and South devastating the Azores, Gibraltar and the South
coast of Spain, Portugal, Senegal, and Guinea. The wave will continue on into
the Mediterranean Sea to a similar extent as the below results.
Within 3 hours a wave, or series of waves, over 400 feet (120 metres) high will
inundate the whole Bay of Biscay area, and the Southern parts of England,
Ireland and Wales. The West African states as far South as Ghana will also be
seriously affected by now.
(The earlier estimates for the warning period and wave height for UK has had to
be updated, unfortunately).
Four hours after the event Africa will be affected as far South as Gabon, the
first part of the Americas will be affected (the East coast of Brazil), and the
wave will have travelled as far North as Iceland and Scandinavia, both by way of
the Atlantic and the English Channel and North Sea, affecting Northern France,
the South and East of England, including London, Belgium, the Netherlands,
Northern Germany and Denmark on the way.
Only after 5 hours does the wave strike the North Eastern States of the United
States, equally devastating New York, Boston, and all the other coastal areas to
a distance of 12 miles (20km) from the sea.
At this stage it might be an idea to contemplate the even worse disasters
which would have already occurred in Africa and Europe and try to judge how much
further the waves will have travelled overland from the coast in these, mainly
low-lying, countries.
You can see now, I hope, why I am anxious to get the message passed around the
World so that SOME effort can be made to save at least SOME of the millions of
lives which will be lost, and all in a very few short hours.
This wave, now 5 hours old and still over 35 metres high is now affecting the
North coast of Brazil as far West as Trinidad and the Antilles and the African
coast as far South as Angola.
Within 7 hours Florida and the remainder of the West Indies will have been
swamped, and Nicaragua, Mexico, Namibia, Cape Town and South Brazil will be
badly affected.
Closer to Home
The wave hitting the coasts of the United Kingdom will
possibly be around 400 feet (120 meters) high causing terrible loss of life and will
literally wreck not only coastal towns and cities, but many inland low-lying
ones also.
We may well expect this tidal wave to hit Devon and Cornwall, and South Wales
soon after, travelling along the South West and South coasts of England , the
entire coast of Wales, North West England and the West coast of Scotland and
both coasts of Ireland. This wave will also travel the full length of the
English Channel, which will possibly tend to funnel the wave at a near constant
height, ending up surging into the North Sea, flooding the Low Countries, and
inundating London. Unfortunately even the scientists can only speculate as to
the height of the waves . The death figures in UK alone will be over a million
because there is a possibility of the population receiving ONLY TWO
AND A HALF HOURS NOTICE OF EVACUATION. Do you remember how very little notice
there was when Mount St. Helens finally blew?
The Overall Picture
Just imagine the overall picture if NO precautionary work is undertaken. The
damage will be the same, but the loss of life will be very much higher.
South & West England
South & West England will suffer worst, with Penzance, Falmouth and Truro,
Plymouth, Torquay and
Exeter, Weymouth, Bournemouth and Poole, Portsmouth and Southampton ceasing
to exist. Even cities such as Salisbury and Winchester could
suffer some flood damage, with enormous loss of life on the way. Of course,
this damage will continue further East and North. The East coast will be inundated,
and all coastal and low-lying areas of Scotland will also be affected.
On both sides of the English Channel,
The Bristol Channel and the Irish sea. Bristol and Cardiff, even Gloucester
and further, will suffer terribly. Many other seaside areas with hills behind
could POSSIBLY have time to evacuate SOME of their inhabitants to higher land,
but the majority will not be rescued in time because the political and civic
leaders will not have heeded this warning, or acted soon enough.
What Can Tsunamiwatch Do?
We, in the United Kingdom, have already contacted the Cabinet Office twice.
They have passed the buck to DEFRA
who, by public demand, have issued a pitiful document which shows that the political
will is not permitting any useful warning systems, other than those available
at present. These would be entirely inadequate - as time will tell.
Is This Sufficient Action?
We think not, which is why we have released this
document, and are asking for maximum publicity from all areas of the press.
Our Minimum Target
is to get all the warning sirens, used so successfully
during the War, replaced and supplemented by extra ones so that everyone in low
lying areas within 30 miles of the sea, lesser distances in areas with higher
land, can be warned as effectively as possible.
Of course the possibility of false alarms must be looked at, but it will surely
be best to act on every warning than to lose one's life.
THE POPULATION WILL
ONLY GET THE ONE CHANCE TO SURVIVE.
Houston was evacuated, but it took two days.
Remember that this time you may
only get TWO AND A HALF HOURS.
Our Immediate Aim
is to get assurances from all the MPs representing the West and
South coast areas, and the town, city, borough and district councils in the
same areas, to carry out the minimum amount of preparation work, at the minimum
cost to the country with the biggest end result. We must plan expecting the
worst scenario. We consider that information spread in the wrong way may
cause a certain amount of worry and lead to the lowering of coastal property
prices to the initial detriment of the country as a whole, but THIS CANNOT BE
HELPED. All Tsunami Watch can do is to ensure
that the dangers are recognised
for what they are, INTERNATIONALLY.
Comments will undoubtedly be made by the cash-strapped Governments about
sending television and radio announcements out. Yes, fine, provided there are
sufficient pre-eruption signs, and Remember,
that there may be only two and
a half hours warning-and in the middle of the night. Again, remember Mt. St
Helens? There was minimal warning when that one blew.
Important
In the UK it will be important for each area to have a really
effective disaster co-ordinator with a senior position in local government to
examine the local problems for evacuation purposes. I have been a voluntary
Area Emergency Planner and I know from my past experience that the existing
Emergency Planning Officers of most UK Councils “have been found more
important or additional jobs already.” We can see an awareness already
appearing among various population groups. We would suggest holding a series
of meetings so that at least a proportion of all coast populations can work out
for themselves what to do and where to go, when, not
if the time comes.
Transport
... of the elderly and infirm will be a priority, but at night bus drivers
will be at home in bed. Where roads are going to be congested, traffic going
INTO an area, such as Portsmouth or Plymouth would be banned, allowing double
the normal amount of traffic for evacuation purposes, as happened at Houston.
The Financial Cost
In the end, and WHEN it happens,
the financial cost will be astronomical, IN
EVERY COUNTRY INVOLVED. In the meantime, if Governments act quickly and
quietly loss of life can be minimised. A much higher loss of life will occur
if Governments do not take notice, and if some action is not taken soon.
We would appreciate being informed of any and all useful and meaningful
decisions made in any areas, so that expert advice can be centralised and made
available to as many people as possible.
PLEASE REMEMBER this disaster may not happen straight away.
It may be twenty,
forty, sixty, eighty years ahead, but on the other hand it COULD be next week.
Very importantly and finally, I have to say that although all of this
theoretical work was done, as mentioned in the second paragraph, “in good
faith”, it was started by working on the assumption that the newspaper quote
was correct. I have only just found out, late in November 2005, from Dr.
George Pararas-Carayannis himself that he was misquoted.
He has kindly written “please do not be so hard on yourself and do
continue with your well intented efforts to properly educate the public
about disasters and needed preparedness.”
What I have also learned is the ineffectiveness of government and local
MPs when you need them. They care little about the fact that well over a
million British people could possibly have drowned within the loose time-scale
referred to. My letters to the government have had little impact to date.
At least we have learned not to rely on government but to try
talking to local government about early warning systems. (Tsunami Watch)
Work Cited
Halas, John, Freaky Meteotsunami Tosses Parked Cars Around at Brazilian Beach,Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 5:01 pm, |
www.carscoops.com/2014/02/freaky-meteotsunami-tosses-parked-cars.html
Tsunami Watch, 35 St. John's Court, Abbey Rise, Tavistock, Devon, PL19 9FD, United Kingdom
tel: +44 (0) 1822 613 055 E-mail:
tony@tsunamiwatch.co.uk
